Impact of Trump's Warning and Q2 GDP numbers

The warning issued by Trump to BRICS countries for de-dollarization could have an impact on Indian markets on Monday. Since Trump won the election, the Indian outlook has been positive towards India-USA business relations. However, this warning being directed collectively towards BRICS will affect India as India has been trying to push Rupee trade with Russia. China is also trying to push the Chinese Yuan in their bilateral trades and hence the talks of BRICS trying to bring their own currency are widespread. The De-dollarization threat to USA is real as indicated in the portion of reserves in dollars. The Dollar has slowly losing the trust as countries are using other currencies and assets in forex reserves. This news combined with the Q2 GDP numbers can act as catalyst for a bearish market.

My take on the news is that it is only a warning right now. No action has been taken by any of the countries. Rather than keeping a negative outlook for next week market, I would suggest to wait and watch. It often happens that by the time a news reaches the public at large, the prices would have already accounted for it. If this news has been accommodated then keeping a negative outlook will make us blind to the long opportunities in the market. Also, this is geopolitical news and might affect the macroeconomic trends in the long term. Trying to time the market on basis this news will be a little difficult. If the news is substantial and was not anticipated by the market, then this will be visible in the gap down open and the first hour of trading on Monday. But if the market is not bearish in the first half on Monday, then this news might not have

Outlook on Nifty for December 1st week

Nifty has shown strength and bounced from the 23280 and currently facing a resistance at 24330. The market is extremely bullish above 24500. This does not mean that we will take long position blindly. Let it form price action rejecting 24500 and then we can take a long position. If the prices crosses 24200 then it might go till 24500 and face resistance. People can see a head and shoulder pattern in formation but this has to be accompanied by a liquidity sweeping pattern. Am I saying that this will happen? Absolutely not. The prices might go uninterrupted till 25000 without even caring for the lines we draw on charts. I am stating the price action that will be reliable for trading.

For the short trades, the last confirmed support is 23280. In case, the market forms a support in next two days, we can have a short trade below that support if there is a liquidity sweeping pattern. The price might fall till 23280. Extreme bearishness will be when prices open below or near 23280 and within 1 hour break the low of the day with strong candle close in 15 minute chart.